tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → SAT 13:20 BOS 18:47 30% 8% 0.7% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 25m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 07m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28UA 1977 5h 58m 92% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655 6h 46m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726 8h 04m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 36m Dulles IAD 13:03 → BOS 14:48UA 1392 6h 48m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → BOS 13:37AA 1206 7h 36m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 8h 05m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 12:41 → EWR 17:28UA 1261 47m Newark EWR 18:15 → BOS 19:42UA 2763 6h 01m 63% 36%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:39 → DEN 14:55UA 1007 47m Denver DEN 15:42 → BOS 21:31UA 1912 6h 52m 56% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON