Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1718 at 06:40, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1718 American Flight history →	SAT 06:40	DCA 11:02	7%	4%	1.1%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 43m	97%	85%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 07m Houston	IAH 07:44 → DCA 11:40UA 512	5h 10m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 07m	94%	83%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	6h 41m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SAT 13:20 → BOS 18:47DL 816	3h 01m Boston	BOS 21:48 → DCA 23:44DL 5704 · flown by Republic	9h 24m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	8h 30m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	9h 05m	97%	77%
United Details →	SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:53 → DCA 13:53UA 202	6h 13m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAT 12:47 → DFW 14:11AA 413	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:01 → DCA 19:20AA 2520	5h 33m	74%	46%
American Details →	SAT 16:33 → DFW 18:00AA 1961	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	5h 26m	65%	35%
United Details →	SAT 13:59 → ORD 16:57UA 2243	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369	6h 11m	69%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON