Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3709 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3709 SAT 05:40 → DEN 06:57 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2479 SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3709 Southwest	SAT 05:40	DEN 06:57	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 5397 SkyWest	SAT 05:31	DEN 07:32	5%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3732 Southwest	SAT 10:11	DEN 11:28	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2853 United Flight history →	SAT 08:53	DEN 10:11	9%	4%	0.7%	86%
WN 2139 Southwest	SAT 12:46	DEN 14:03	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SAT 13:39	DEN 14:55	23%	6%	0.8%	84%
WN 856 Southwest	SAT 18:55	DEN 20:43	24%	11%	0.7%	no record
F9 2355 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 20:12	DEN 21:38	24%	8%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
UA 2479 United Flight history →	SAT 16:35	DEN 18:08	34%	11%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON