Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2342 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2342 SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1961 SAT 16:33 → DFW 18:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2342 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:18	5%	4%	1.7%	91%
AA 2616 American Flight history →	SAT 04:54	DFW 06:15	5%	5%	1.9%	93%
AA 3098 American Flight history →	SAT 07:00	DFW 08:20	9%	5%	1.7%	83%
AA 2377 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	DFW 09:24	9%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	SAT 10:51	DFW 12:12	11%	6%	1.2%	78%
AA 1631 American Flight history →	SAT 09:31	DFW 10:50	11%	6%	1.1%	78%
MQ 4039 Envoy	SAT 11:31	DFW 12:47	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 413 American Flight history →	SAT 12:47	DFW 14:11	20%	8%	1.2%	70%
AA 2768 American	SAT 14:09	DFW 15:34	21%	8%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3742 Envoy	SAT 19:01	DFW 20:17	22%	7%	2.0%	no record
AA 2609 American Flight history →	SAT 14:48	DFW 16:11	24%	9%	1.2%	69%
AA 620 American	SAT 17:46	DFW 19:16	25%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 2368 American Flight history →	SAT 20:36	DFW 21:57	25%	11%	1.4%	57%
AA 1961 American Flight history →	SAT 16:33	DFW 18:00	26%	10%	1.4%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON