tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2233 United Flight history → SAT 06:27 EWR 11:22 6% 4% 1.1% 93%
UA 1261 United Flight history → SAT 12:41 EWR 17:28 32% 15% 0.9% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 55m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 41m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 01m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 8h 30m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 36m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 13m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 6h 37m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 57m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 6h 44m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → SAT 19:10 → PHX 19:41AA 2973 2h 33m Phoenix PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156 9h 50m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 1h 09m Denver DEN 19:17 → EWR 01:09 +1UA 2093 7h 34m 73% 42%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:59 → ORD 16:57UA 2243 1h 00m Chicago ORD 17:57 → EWR 21:04UA 2790 6h 05m 66% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON