tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 471 United Flight history → SAT 07:00 IAD 11:27 4% 3% 0.9% 95%
UA 2250 United Flight history → SAT 12:01 IAD 16:28 9% 4% 0.8% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444 5h 21m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135 6h 59m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:09 → IAD 14:03AA 524 8h 02m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 3h 34m Houston IAH 10:11 → IAD 14:21UA 3910 7h 51m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:45 → IAH 10:55UA 753 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:23 → IAD 18:49UA 688 8h 04m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 13m Chicago ORD 10:51 → IAD 13:45UA 1486 6h 05m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 2h 15m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 05m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 12:41 → EWR 17:28UA 1261 1h 08m Newark EWR 18:36 → IAD 19:59UA 3934 6h 18m 71% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON