Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4368 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4368 SAT 06:30 → LAS 07:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3721 SAT 21:00 → LAS 21:54 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4368 Southwest	SAT 06:30	LAS 07:24	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1581 Southwest	SAT 09:12	LAS 10:06	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 193 Southwest	SAT 13:15	LAS 14:09	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 3419 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 12:31	LAS 13:33	27%	9%	0.9%	71%
WN 3087 Southwest	SAT 15:56	LAS 16:48	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3721 Southwest	SAT 21:00	LAS 21:54	31%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON