Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4951 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4951 SAT 07:00 → LAX 08:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2041 SAT 15:35 → LAX 16:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4951 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 07:00	LAX 08:20	11%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 2534 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:42	LAX 08:45	13%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 15:08	LAX 16:25	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 1471 Delta	SAT 16:47	LAX 17:54	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2041 Southwest	SAT 15:35	LAX 16:43	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON