tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1775 at 10:15, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1775 Southwest SAT 10:15 MCI 12:20 6% 2% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:45 → IAH 10:55UA 753 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 7h 02m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 58m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → MCI 11:29DL 1349 5h 24m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 51m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 15m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 6h 32m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 27m Houston IAH 08:04 → MCI 10:23UA 2009 4h 53m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 7h 27m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 49m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 58m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 33m 93% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 47m Atlanta ATL 20:37 → MCI 21:52DL 3023 5h 37m 71% 51%
AmericanDetails → SAT 20:36 → DFW 21:57AA 2368 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 3h 47m 69% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON