Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3724 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3724 Southwest	SAT 09:20	MDW 12:01	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3725 Southwest	SAT 15:35	MDW 18:13	30%	10%	3.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 36m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	7h 31m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 40m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 37m	92%	68%
Delta Details →	SAT 11:29 → DTW 15:35DL 788	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	7h 00m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	2h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 04m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON