Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1604 at 05:01, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1604 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	MIA 09:00	10%	4%	1.5%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 15m Houston	IAH 07:52 → MIA 11:45UA 2753	5h 15m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 09m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 47m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 40m	99%	69%
American Details →	SAT 04:54 → DFW 06:15AA 2616	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	5h 17m	95%	69%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 54m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	8h 04m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	SAT 12:37 → JFK 17:55DL 1166	2h 00m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	10h 00m	92%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAT 17:49 → CLT 21:50AA 2934	57m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068	5h 59m	73%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON