tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3748 at 07:55, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3748 Southwest SAT 07:55 MSY 09:37 6% 2% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 3h 16m 92% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:43 → IAH 12:53UA 1282 2h 09m Houston IAH 15:02 → MSY 16:32UA 2738 4h 49m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:41 → MSY 09:23AA 2157 4h 22m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MSY 14:20DL 3157 6h 40m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 05m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 31m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:43 → IAH 12:55UA 6278 · flown by Mesa 3h 45m Houston IAH 16:40 → MSY 17:59UA 6173 · flown by Mesa 6h 16m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAT 04:54 → DFW 06:15AA 2616 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → MSY 10:36AA 1684 5h 42m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON