Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1332 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 1332 SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2801 SAT 17:29 → ORD 20:28 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1332 United Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ORD 09:38	8%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 632 American Flight history →	SAT 06:24	ORD 09:29	9%	5%	1.5%	87%
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 18:57	ORD 22:07	32%	15%	4.7%	76%
UA 2243 United Flight history →	SAT 13:59	ORD 16:57	34%	19%	1.9%	78%worse than usual
AA 2845 American	SAT 14:35	ORD 17:36	39%	21%	2.0%	no record
UA 2801 United	SAT 17:29	ORD 20:28	40%	23%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON