tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1233 American SAT 07:12 PHL 11:58 9% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 7h 38m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 7h 04m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 50m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 31m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 56m Houston IAH 07:33 → PHL 11:50UA 2203 5h 20m 93% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415 5h 51m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 10h 09m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAT 04:54 → DFW 06:15AA 2616 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:45AA 2255 6h 51m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 8h 30m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:01 → IAH 17:08UA 404 57m Houston IAH 18:05 → PHL 22:29UA 1663 5h 28m 73% 53%
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:59 → ORD 16:57UA 2243 1h 02m Chicago ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776 6h 20m 68% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON