Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2543 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2543 SAT 06:05 → PHX 06:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2973 SAT 19:10 → PHX 19:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2543 Southwest	SAT 06:05	PHX 06:35	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3414 Southwest	SAT 11:05	PHX 11:36	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2053 American Flight history →	SAT 08:39	PHX 09:11	14%	6%	0.7%	84%
AA 2375 American Flight history →	SAT 15:43	PHX 16:24	22%	9%	0.7%	68%
WN 3315 Southwest	SAT 14:45	PHX 15:14	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3730 Southwest	SAT 21:30	PHX 21:58	25%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 2973 American Flight history →	SAT 19:10	PHX 19:41	25%	12%	0.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON