tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4716 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4716 Southwest SAT 06:40 SAN 07:43 7% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3318 Southwest SAT 19:35 SAN 20:33 31% 11% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163 10h 03m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 19m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 48m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 38m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 2h 53m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 21m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:45 → IAH 10:55UA 753 3h 22m Houston IAH 14:17 → SAN 15:39UA 1114 7h 54m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAT 12:01 → IAD 16:28UA 2250 1h 32m Dulles IAD 18:00 → SAN 20:23UA 2054 10h 22m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:12DL 924 8h 34m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → SAT 20:12 → DEN 21:38F9 2355 49m Denver DEN 22:27 → SAN 00:00 +1F9 2711 5h 48m 61% 37%
AmericanDetails → SAT 20:36 → DFW 21:57AA 2368 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 5h 23m 75% 36%
AlaskaDetails → SAT 16:44 → SEA 19:10AS 494 57m Seattle SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:55AS 254 8h 11m 61% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON