tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 04:54, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 494 Alaska Flight history → SAT 16:44 SEA 19:10 34% 7% 1.1% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 8h 55m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 8h 53m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 33m Dulles IAD 13:00 → SEA 15:32UA 1824 10h 32m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 10m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 3h 09m Detroit DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728 11h 14m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 3h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 8h 19m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 11h 09m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:42 → LAX 08:45DL 2534 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 9h 13m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:39 → DEN 14:55UA 1007 50m Denver DEN 15:45 → SEA 17:46UA 2013 6h 07m 62% 36%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 1h 03m Denver DEN 19:11 → SEA 21:00UA 2767 6h 25m 69% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON