tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 214 United SAT 07:48 SFO 09:47 15% 6% 0.9% no record
UA 1210 United SAT 18:53 SFO 21:04 25% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 04m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 10h 27m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 12:01 → IAD 16:28UA 2250 2h 20m Dulles IAD 18:48 → SFO 21:42UA 2832 11h 41m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 10m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → SFO 14:57AA 1489 10h 56m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:43 → IAH 12:53UA 1282 2h 37m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 52m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SAT 04:54 → DFW 06:15AA 2616 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949 5h 59m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 2h 55m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 11h 02m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:39 → DEN 14:55UA 1007 52m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 5h 51m 67% 43%
FrontierDetails → SAT 20:12 → DEN 21:38F9 2355 51m Denver DEN 22:29 → SFO 00:23 +1F9 3439 6h 11m 64% 42%
AlaskaDetails → SAT 16:44 → SEA 19:10AS 494 50m Seattle SEA 20:00 → SFO 22:09AS 619 7h 25m 50% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON