tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 487 at 20:25, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 487 Southwest SAT 20:25 TPA 00:11 23% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 22m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 7h 15m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 09m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 55m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 35m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 48m Houston IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353 4h 15m 90% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:27 → EWR 11:22UA 2233 1h 09m Newark EWR 12:31 → TPA 15:36UA 1273 8h 09m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 4h 59m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAT 12:01 → IAD 16:28UA 2250 1h 32m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 7h 38m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:38 → TPA 15:11DL 8862 6h 31m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAT 17:49 → CLT 21:50AA 2934 56m Charlotte CLT 22:46 → TPA 00:41 +1AA 1773 5h 52m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON