Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5596 at 10:34 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 5596 SAV 10:34 → BOS 13:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 150 SAV 15:44 → BOS 18:18 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5596 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SAV 10:34	BOS 13:14	8%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 5647 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SAV 18:25	BOS 20:59	20%	9%	0.8%	65%
B6 150 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 15:44	BOS 18:18	23%	14%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON