Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5049 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5049 SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2372 SAV 17:01 → CLT 18:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5049 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:00	CLT 08:25	6%	4%	1.9%	95%
OH 5277 PSA	SAV 09:21	CLT 10:49	8%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 5676 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 08:47	CLT 10:14	9%	5%	2.4%	88%
AA 5534 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 12:50	CLT 14:10	11%	6%	1.0%	93%
AA 2076 American Flight history →	SAV 10:53	CLT 12:10	13%	7%	1.1%	73%
OH 5029 PSA	SAV 19:26	CLT 20:47	16%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2372 American	SAV 17:01	CLT 18:13	28%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 5890 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 13:05	CLT 14:32	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 11:00	CLT 12:26	14%	6%	0.0%	86%
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 12:56	CLT 14:26	17%	17%	0.0%	83%
AA 6119 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 17:56	CLT 19:28	18%	10%	2.4%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON