tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2828 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2828 United Flight history → SAV 06:05 EWR 08:17 6% 2% 1.0% 94%
UA 546 United Flight history → SAV 15:24 EWR 17:37 31% 14% 1.3% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397 4h 50m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 38m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 10:30 → EWR 12:21AA 1697 5h 21m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAV 08:04 → ATL 09:12DL 686 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 12m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 5h 21m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAV 07:00 → IAH 08:31UA 6220 · flown by Mesa 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 27m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAV 19:15 → IAD 21:02UA 6165 · flown by Mesa 1h 48m Dulles IAD 22:50 → EWR 00:05 +1UA 8197 4h 50m 95% 66%
DeltaDetails → SAV 12:39 → ATL 13:54DL 3054 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 15m 97% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON