Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3708 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 3708 SAV 06:10 → ORD 07:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2499 SAV 16:20 → ORD 17:55 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3708 Republic	SAV 06:10	ORD 07:54	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 485 United	SAV 08:50	ORD 10:26	10%	7%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4054 Envoy	SAV 11:49	ORD 13:26	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 1464 United	SAV 12:43	ORD 14:18	23%	14%	1.8%	no record
UA 2499 United	SAV 16:20	ORD 17:55	34%	21%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON