Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 12:32, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1822 American	SBA 12:32	DFW 18:00	28%	10%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	5h 40m	99%	82%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 08:33 → DFW 14:25UA 1062	6h 10m	97%	81%
United Details →	SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865	1h 05m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	5h 31m	94%	78%
Alaska Details →	SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392	7h 08m	92%	76%
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	3h 03m San Diego	SAN 17:50 → DFW 22:53AS 689	7h 11m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon	2h 48m San Diego	SAN 09:52 → DFW 15:13AS 545	7h 13m	98%	64%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	6h 43m	98%	59%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	1h 31m San Francisco	SFO 16:39 → DFW 22:18UA 1336	6h 20m	82%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SBA 12:37 → ORD 19:00UA 1009	50m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	7h 59m	32%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON