Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4649 SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 5994 SBA 14:38 → LAX 15:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4649 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 06:00	LAX 07:03	9%	5%	0.8%	91%
OO 5451 SkyWest	SBA 20:42	LAX 21:55	17%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 5994 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 14:38	LAX 15:49	18%	8%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON