Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 464 at 16:25, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 464 Southwest	SBA 16:25	OAK 17:48	14%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON