tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 2178 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 07:34 PDX 09:45 8% 4% 1.0% 92%
AS 2318 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 14:39 PDX 16:49 31% 12% 4.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 20m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 2h 41m San Francisco SFO 10:06 → PDX 11:58UA 2624 5h 43m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 54m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:30UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 6h 45m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 38m 97% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 3h 11m San Diego SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392 6h 49m 100% 68%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon 4h 00m San Diego SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 7h 43m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 45m San Francisco SFO 16:53 → PDX 18:49UA 1812 4h 51m 88% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 47m San Francisco SFO 08:12 → PDX 10:07UA 5777 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m 75% 61%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 54m San Diego SAN 15:41 → PDX 18:14AS 1321 4h 32m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON