tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 469 at 18:52, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 469 Alaska SBA 18:52 SEA 21:25 32% 10% 1.1% no record
AS 2143 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 10:51 SEA 13:26 18% 0% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 2h 35m Portland PDX 12:20 → SEA 13:23AS 3038 · flown by SkyWest 5h 49m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 59m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:31 → SEA 13:35UA 2058 8h 35m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:30 → PHX 14:14AA 2928 3h 41m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 8h 35m 92% 66%
UnitedDetails → SBA 14:38 → LAX 15:49UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Los Angeles LAX 19:06 → SEA 21:59UA 684 7h 21m 100% 64%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:30UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → SEA 23:20UA 1007 7h 17m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 18:46 → SEA 21:15UA 1097 7h 17m 98% 62%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998 7h 09m 97% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 16:27 → SEA 18:47UA 2279 4h 49m 75% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON