Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4069 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 4069 SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 3853 SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4069 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 05:50	SLC 08:50	4%	3%	0.7%	100%
DL 3841 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 12:40	SLC 15:41	12%	6%	0.8%	96%
DL 3853 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 16:50	SLC 19:51	15%	8%	1.7%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON