tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3733 at 19:45, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3733 Southwest SBA 19:45 SMF 21:15 24% 11% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 15m Portland PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon 4h 59m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Los Angeles LAX 09:29 → SMF 11:15UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest 5h 15m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 26m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 54m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 3h 20m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 5h 38m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → SBA 14:38 → LAX 15:49UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 18:58 → SMF 20:37UA 2075 5h 59m 100% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 2h 45m San Diego SAN 17:32 → SMF 19:19AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest 5h 37m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585 5h 36m 98% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon 59m Portland PDX 17:48 → SMF 19:29AS 793 4h 50m 67% 53%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:30UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 58m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m 68% 50%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 49m San Diego SAN 15:36 → SMF 17:18AS 349 3h 36m 62% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON