tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 518 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 518 Southwest SDF 07:05 BNA 07:14 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1765 Southwest SDF 17:50 BNA 17:59 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → BNA 09:50DL 1155 4h 50m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 09m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 13m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 25m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:57 → IAD 11:45UA 3508 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Dulles IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213 4h 52m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 14m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 2h 03m Newark EWR 10:41 → BNA 12:02UA 2776 6h 32m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 09m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 57m Washington DCA 08:47 → BNA 10:01AA 5085 · flown by PSA 5h 01m 92% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 5h 31m 67% 53%
UnitedDetails → SDF 15:25 → DEN 16:24UA 1510 1h 06m Denver DEN 17:30 → BNA 21:13UA 1300 6h 48m 72% 42%
UnitedDetails → SDF 19:55 → ORD 20:40UA 4563 · flown by GoJet 57m Chicago ORD 21:37 → BNA 23:11UA 314 4h 16m 73% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON