Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 12:49	BOS 15:25	11%	5%	0.6%	79%
YX 4685 Republic	SDF 19:14	BOS 21:47	14%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 45m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic	2h 48m New York	LGA 11:00 → BOS 12:22DL 5745 · flown by Republic	6h 22m	100%	88%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic	1h 50m Washington	DCA 09:40 → BOS 11:22AA 4337 · flown by Republic	5h 22m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 42m	97%	85%
United Details →	SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic	2h 44m Newark	EWR 11:22 → BOS 12:33UA 1669	6h 03m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:22 → BOS 14:50DL 1293	6h 40m	98%	82%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606	6h 52m	98%	81%
American Details →	SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic	52m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	4h 26m	90%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	6h 00m	63%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON