Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1349 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1349 SDF 05:04 → CLT 06:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2296 SDF 16:59 → CLT 18:32 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1349 American	SDF 05:04	CLT 06:47	11%	6%	1.1%	no record
OH 514 PSA	SDF 11:46	CLT 13:21	13%	6%	0.9%	no record
OH 5220 PSA	SDF 20:14	CLT 21:50	18%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2099 American Flight history →	SDF 08:15	CLT 09:54	19%	7%	1.2%	83%
AA 2819 American	SDF 13:50	CLT 15:23	24%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2296 American	SDF 16:59	CLT 18:32	31%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON