Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4549 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4549 SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5602 SDF 17:50 → DCA 19:37 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4549 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:00	DCA 07:50	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
YX 4802 Republic	SDF 11:07	DCA 12:58	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5602 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 17:50	DCA 19:37	27%	10%	2.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON