Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 331 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 331 SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 3111 SDF 19:35 → DFW 20:58 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 331 American Flight history →	SDF 06:38	DFW 08:08	16%	8%	1.7%	80%
MQ 4051 Envoy	SDF 11:54	DFW 13:13	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 13:18	DFW 14:40	19%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 1645 American	SDF 08:23	DFW 09:51	20%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 17:48	DFW 19:11	24%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 2813 American	SDF 16:27	DFW 17:54	32%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 3111 American Flight history →	SDF 19:35	DFW 20:58	32%	10%	1.2%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON