Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3594 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 3594 SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest YX 3670 SDF 18:35 → EWR 21:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3594 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:30	EWR 08:38	6%	2%	1.4%	90%
YX 3569 Republic	SDF 11:15	EWR 13:37	12%	5%	2.4%	no record
UA 3452 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 13:31	EWR 16:01	17%	6%	2.2%	81%
YX 3670 Republic	SDF 18:35	EWR 21:11	25%	9%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON