Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2094 at 16:35, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2094 Southwest	SDF 16:35	HOU 18:06	21%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 45m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 05m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 05m	98%	75%
American Details →	SDF 13:18 → DFW 14:40AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:49AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 31m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 04m	96%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON