Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 3508 at 09:57, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3508 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 09:57	IAD 11:45	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 4067 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 13:48	IAD 15:32	14%	6%	1.2%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444	5h 41m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135	6h 29m	98%	83%
United Details →	SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic	1h 19m Newark	EWR 09:57 → IAD 11:15UA 1618	4h 45m	97%	79%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → IAD 13:45UA 1486	6h 30m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:30 → MSP 17:39DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	95%	79%
United Details →	SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	2h 29m Houston	IAH 10:11 → IAD 14:21UA 3910	8h 06m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → IAD 17:12DL 1695	5h 55m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902	5h 29m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON