Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 504 at 11:15, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 504 Southwest	SDF 11:15	LAS 12:19	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 37m	96%	78%
United Details →	SDF 09:57 → IAD 11:45UA 3508 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156	8h 12m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 57m	96%	77%
United Details →	SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic	2h 16m Newark	EWR 10:54 → LAS 13:21UA 446	9h 51m	99%	77%
United Details →	SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	3h 13m Houston	IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799	8h 59m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 38m	98%	76%
United Details →	SDF 13:48 → IAD 15:32UA 4067 · flown by Mesa	2h 39m Dulles	IAD 18:11 → LAS 20:24UA 2209	9h 36m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	6h 30m	59%	44%
Delta Details →	SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	6h 32m	62%	42%
Delta Details →	SDF 19:51 → MSP 21:02DL 4923 · flown by Endeavor	53m Minneapolis	MSP 21:55 → LAS 23:16DL 1442	6h 25m	56%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON