tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2073 at 05:55, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2073 American Flight history → SDF 05:55 MIA 08:32 17% 7% 1.0% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 4h 57m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 05m Washington DCA 09:55 → MIA 12:39AA 401 6h 39m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 6h 02m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 6h 52m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → SDF 18:54 → ATL 20:34DL 1126 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 01m 94% 66%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic 3h 03m New York LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538 8h 24m 100% 62%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:30 → MSP 17:39DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 7h 05m 84% 62%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 2h 54m Newark EWR 11:32 → MIA 14:39UA 2295 8h 09m 100% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON