Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3507 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–58%.

Safest bet that day YX 3507 SDF 05:09 → ORD 05:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4940 SDF 18:00 → ORD 18:37 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3507 Republic	SDF 05:09	ORD 05:55	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:15	ORD 07:56	14%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:57	ORD 07:42	16%	4%	0.8%	93%
YX 3477 Republic	SDF 09:04	ORD 09:49	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2074 United	SDF 10:22	ORD 10:41	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3582 Envoy	SDF 10:27	ORD 11:05	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	SDF 14:49	ORD 15:29	39%	15%	2.0%	no record
OO 5834 SkyWest	SDF 13:52	ORD 14:29	40%	17%	3.0%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	SDF 18:00	ORD 18:37	58%	26%	5.6%	no record
UA 4563 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 19:55	ORD 20:40	23%	5%	6.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON