Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4750 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4750 SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest YX 4375 SDF 16:52 → PHL 19:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4750 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:37	PHL 09:38	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
YX 4375 Republic	SDF 16:52	PHL 19:07	20%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 12:12	PHL 14:20	23%	8%	3.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON