Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2080 Southwest	SDF 19:25	PHX 20:36	22%	10%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	3h 31m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	9h 00m	99%	81%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 10m Washington	DCA 10:00 → PHX 11:44AA 1218	8h 44m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	9h 03m	99%	79%
American Details →	SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Philadelphia	PHL 10:48 → PHX 12:47AA 478	8h 10m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	6h 54m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366	9h 08m	98%	76%
United Details →	SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic	1h 22m Newark	EWR 10:00 → PHX 12:12UA 1289	8h 42m	97%	75%
United Details →	SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	1h 58m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	7h 19m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	6h 29m	61%	49%
American Details →	SDF 17:48 → DFW 19:11AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → PHX 20:48AA 3232	6h 00m	67%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON