tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3374 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3374 Southwest SDF 05:00 TPA 07:09 5% 1% 1.1% no record
WN 967 Southwest SDF 19:05 TPA 21:15 22% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 08:29 → TPA 09:59DL 1227 3h 59m 94% 85%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 29m Washington DCA 10:19 → TPA 12:57AA 3126 6h 57m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic 2h 28m New York LGA 10:40 → TPA 13:28DL 2195 7h 28m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → SDF 09:57 → IAD 11:45UA 3508 · flown by Republic 1h 04m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 5h 18m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 4h 24m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 59m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 5h 00m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:38 → TPA 15:11DL 8862 7h 01m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SDF 13:48 → IAD 15:32UA 4067 · flown by Mesa 2h 28m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 6h 51m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 5h 09m 66% 49%
AmericanDetails → SDF 12:12 → PHL 14:20AA 5915 · flown by Piedmont 47m Philadelphia PHL 15:07 → TPA 18:02AA 2572 5h 50m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON