Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3116 at 12:48, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3116 SkyWest	SEA 12:48	ACV 14:39	20%	10%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 37m Denver	DEN 11:20 → ACV 13:24UA 5506 · flown by SkyWest	8h 24m	99%	81%
United Details →	SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831	3h 03m San Francisco	SFO 14:06 → ACV 15:41UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	95%	65%
United Details →	SEA 06:57 → SFO 09:06UA 499	1h 09m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	4h 45m	84%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 19:30 → SFO 21:38UA 737	57m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → ACV 23:59UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	56%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON