Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2768 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2768 SEA 07:35 → ANC 10:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1336 SEA 20:17 → ANC 22:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:35	ANC 10:21	11%	3%	0.8%	94%
AS 7097 Alaska	SEA 00:29	ANC 03:15	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ANC 13:17	23%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:40	ANC 16:25	25%	5%	0.8%	73%
AS 85 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:51	ANC 19:30	26%	5%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
DL 936 Delta Flight history →	SEA 21:20	ANC 23:58	26%	6%	1.0%	73%
DL 2367 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	ANC 20:14	27%	5%	0.9%	79%
AS 1332 Alaska	SEA 08:30	ANC 11:14	27%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 1333 Alaska	SEA 11:51	ANC 14:34	28%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 582 Alaska	SEA 19:07	ANC 21:41	28%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 99 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:55	ANC 18:34	29%	5%	1.1%	78%
AS 584 Alaska	SEA 09:43	ANC 12:27	29%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 1381 Alaska	SEA 14:02	ANC 16:32	29%	5%	1.1%	no record
AS 83 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:59	ANC 14:47	30%	5%	0.9%	72%
AS 711 Alaska	SEA 21:01	ANC 23:33	30%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 1408 Alaska	SEA 18:07	ANC 20:41	31%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 703 Alaska	SEA 22:52	ANC 01:25	33%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1471 Alaska	SEA 22:07	ANC 00:39	34%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1336 Alaska	SEA 20:17	ANC 22:51	36%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON