Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 739 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30%.

Safest bet that day DL 739 SEA 07:15 → AUS 13:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3568 SEA 11:10 → AUS 17:12 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 739 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	AUS 13:26	14%	5%	0.8%	90%
AS 352 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:14	AUS 14:12	28%	4%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:00	AUS 17:16	29%	7%	0.8%	79%
AS 372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:19	AUS 00:31	30%	7%	0.9%	78%
DL 848 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:50	AUS 23:53	30%	9%	0.9%	75%
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:45	AUS 17:43	33%	6%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
WN 3568 Southwest	SEA 11:10	AUS 17:12	41%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON