Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1532 SEA 09:28 → BNA 15:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 450 SEA 17:33 → BNA 23:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1532 Alaska	SEA 09:28	BNA 15:40	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 815 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	BNA 23:54	26%	7%	0.8%	82%
AS 450 Alaska	SEA 17:33	BNA 23:45	30%	6%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 16m	92%	78%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	49m Denver	DEN 09:32 → BNA 13:08UA 355	6h 08m	84%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON