Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 473 at 00:07 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 473 SEA 00:07 → BOS 08:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 398 SEA 23:44 → BOS 08:09 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 473 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:07	BOS 08:15	11%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 459 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:29	BOS 16:00	12%	5%	0.7%	88%
AS 288 Alaska	SEA 07:18	BOS 15:24	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 214 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 23:00	BOS 07:12	22%	3%	0.7%	81%
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:23	BOS 16:53	22%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 474 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:00	BOS 00:14	24%	7%	0.8%	71%
DL 438 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:15	BOS 19:43	24%	8%	0.7%	65%
AS 460 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:36	BOS 23:59	27%	7%	0.8%	80%
B6 398 JetBlue Flight history →	SEA 23:44	BOS 08:09	34%	11%	0.7%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 25m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 39m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	54m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707	7h 15m	78%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON