tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 263 Alaska SEA 13:17 CLE 20:40 26% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:32DL 953 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:08DL 1083 6h 48m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:07 → BOS 08:15DL 473 1h 04m Boston BOS 09:19 → CLE 11:31DL 5674 · flown by Republic 8h 24m 91% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:15DL 652 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 8h 06m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 57m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536 3h 22m Minneapolis MSP 20:51 → CLE 23:44DL 1392 8h 31m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 1h 04m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 8h 25m 89% 72%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 17:17 → CLE 19:08DL 1350 10h 08m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320 9h 50m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 18:46 → LAX 21:43UA 1730 52m Los Angeles LAX 22:35 → CLE 06:10 +1UA 2641 8h 24m 52% 44%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:39 → CLE 21:34AA 1484 8h 12m 72% 37%
UnitedDetails → SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835 48m Chicago ORD 17:53 → CLE 20:21UA 2652 6h 29m 40% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON